- Sterling performed solidly yesterday, underpinned by a better than expected UK Public Net Sector Borrowing figure. Net borrowing stood at £5.1Bn for August, lower than the forecasted £6.5Bn, representing the lowest borrowing figure for the month of August since 2007. The improvement was attributed to massive rise in VAT receipts.
- Speaking yesterday, EU Brexit negotiator Verhofstadt said he hoped Theresa May’s speech in Florence today could provide a break through in Brexit talks, as so far he had not seen enough progress.
- There was raft of data out of North America yesterday afternoon:
- Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m 1.5% (-0.7% Exp)
- US Unemployment Claims 259K (302K Exp)
- US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 23.8 (17.3 Exp)
- US HPI m/m 0.2% (0.4% Exp)
- Sterling took a further leg higher into the afternoon as sources reported UK PM Theresa May is prepared to offer the EU €20Bn during the two year transition period in order to secure access to the single market and some form of customs union.
- The Latest FGW German Election Poll:
- Chancellor Merkel’s Conservatives – 36%
- Social Democrats – 21%
- Far-Right AFD – 11%
- Pro-Business FDP – 10%
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.0 (55.6 Exp)
- French Flash Services PMI 57.1 (54.8 Exp)
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI 60.6 (59.0 Exp)
- German Flash Services PMI 55.6 (53.8 Exp)
- Credit ratings agency S&P don’t expect the US Fed to hike rates again in 2017, but do still expect 3 hikes in 2018.
- UK PM Theresa May is due to speak about the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU in Florence. The exact time is yet to be confirmed.
- Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data will be our key data this afternoon.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09.00||EUR||ECB President Draghi Speaks|
|09.00||EUR||Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI||57.2||57.4|
|09.00||EUR||Eurozone Flash Services PMI||54.7||54.7|
|TBC||GBP||PM Theresa May Speaks|
|11.00||GBP||CBI Industrial Order Expectations||13||13|
|13.30||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||0.4%||0.7%|
|14.00||EUR||Belgian NBB Business Climate||-2.0||-2.1|
|14.45||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI||52.9||52.8|
|14.45||USD||Flash Services PMI||55.8||56.0|