Newsletter – 22nd November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Market movement was generally subdued for the major pairings on Tuesday.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1275 and traded a high of 1.1308 and then a low of 1.1258 before eventually closing at 1.1276.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3232 and pushed up to 1.3267 then came off to trade a low of 1.3209 before recovering to close up marginally on the day at 1.3237.
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.1732 and gained five points on the day after closing at 1.1737.
  • UK public sector net borrowing came in worse than expected at 7.5B when figure was estimated by economists to be 6.6B.
  • At 1.30pm Canadian wholesale sales m/m missed expectations after coming in at -1.2% vs 0.6% expected.
  • One figure did exceed expectations and that was existing home sales from the US. 5.48m existing residential properties were sold during the last month when 5.42m was expected.
  • There were celebrations throughout most of Zimbabwe yesterday as President Robert Mugabe resigned after 37 years of rule.
  • A resignation letter from the 93 year old president was handed to the speaker of parliament during yesterday’s impeachment hearing against him. The Zanu-PF party have stated that former vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa will succeed Mugabe.
  • The Financial Times was reporting that the EU and UK are aiming to strike a Brexit ‘divorce’ deal within 3 weeks. Senior EU diplomats say there is now a great than 50% chance of agreement on ‘sufficient progress’ at an EU summit on December 14th.
Overnight
  • Australian construction work done q/q came in far better than anticipated overnight. The expected figure was -2.1% but the actual figure released was 15.7%.
  • The Bank of Japan has dropped subtle hints that it could withdraw its ‘crisis mode’ stimulus with bank officials becoming more vocal on the rising cost of prolonged easing. It is thought that this does not have immediate policy implications.
Today
  • Chancellor Phillip Hammond will today deliver his second Budget. His speech in the Commons is set to begin at 12:30 GMT.
  • It is expected that the chancellor will announce;
    • More money for teacher training in England.
    • A commitment to speeding up housing developments along with more help for small builders.
    • Discounted rail cards for younger people.
    • £2.3bn for R&D and £1.7bn for transport links to boost the UK’s productivity.
    • Funds to be made available for new electric car charging points and for the next generation of wireless networks.
  • There have been calls from the Adam Smith Institute to end stamp duty for first-time buyers in a further attempt to help people into home ownership.
  • At 1.30pm we have economic data from the US in the form of core durable goods orders m/m and unemployment claims.
  • We then have the FOMC meeting minutes released at 7pm and this evening we expected retail sales data from New Zealand.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1256 -0.18
GBP/USD 1.3248 +0.08
EUR/USD 1.1768 +0.26
AUD/USD 0.7566 -0.14

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:30 GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.7%
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 241K 249K
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 2.0%
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
21:45 NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.9% 2.1%