Newsletter – 22nd May 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • With yesterday being a bank holiday in France, Germany, Switzerland and Canada there was a dearth of economic data released yesterday.
  • GBP/EUR came off by half of a percent on Monday – the market opened at 1.1441 and traded high of 1.1463 before coming off over the course of the day to eventually close at the low of the day at 1.1386.
  • Sterling was among the biggest fallers against the US dollar yesterday with GBP/USD falling by a third of a percent to close at 1.3420. Significantly this is below the 1.3455 level that has been supporting the market of late.
  • There were reports surfacing again that the Scottish government is preparing a fresh push for independence as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon believes the release of an upcoming economic report will be an important part of the renewed effort.
  • There were also speculative reports that Tory MPs are preparing for another snap election this Autumn amid fears that Brexit talks will fail. Whether these reports have any truth to them or not, they have the ability to weigh on the pound.
  • FOMC member Bostik, speaking in Atlanta yesterday, said that US inflation is likely to run a bit above 2% “for a while yet”.
Overnight
  • CPI y/y from the Bank of Japan came very slightly weaker than expected at 0.5% vs 0.6% overnight.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.7695, 1.9297 and 149.43, respectively.
Today
  • We have another quiet day ahead in terms of economic data.
  • At 9.15am MPC member Vlieghe is expected to testify at his parliamentary reappointment hearing before the Treasury Committee in London.
  • Following that we have UK public sector net borrowing which is expected to come in at 7.2B at 9.30am. 
  • At 10am we have the UK inflation report hearings.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1378 -0.07
GBP/USD 1.3455 +0.26
EUR/USD 1.1825 +0.29
AUD/USD 0.7603 +0.33

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:15 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.2B -0.3B
10:00 GBP Inflation Report Hearings