Newsletter – 22nd March 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Strong day for Sterling in FX space, with the Pound rallying off the back of a higher than expected UK inflation print of2.3% in the morning. Expected to rise by 2.1% y/y, the actual print smashed through the Bank of England’s target level for the first time in 3 years.
  • It was this surge through the BOE’s target inflation level that underpinned the Sterling rally, as in theory at least this could prompt the Central bank to consider hiking rates in order to get inflation under control. It is worth noting however speaking earlier today BOE Governor Marc Carney said the BOE would never overreact to a single point of data.
  • Some of the Pound’s more notable gains over the day’s trading included:
    • Versus the US Dollar, closed at 1.2485 (+1.04%)
    • Versus the Kiwi Dollar, closed at 1.7702 (+1.06%)
    • Versus the SA Rand, closed at 15.8070 (+1.14%)
  • There was further positive news for the UK with Public Net Sector borrowing dropping to its lowest level for the month of February since 2007. The print showed borrowing stood at £1.8Bn, against a forecasted £2.9Bn.
  • FRENCH ELECTIONS: yesterday’s Opinionway poll again shows Macron streets ahead with 61% in the second round of voting, with Le Pen on 39%. Macron was largely believed to be the most convincing candidate in a TV debate Monday evening.
  • Other notable data releases yesterday:
    • Canadian Retail Sales m/m 2.2% (1.5% Exp)
    • US Current Account -112Bn (-129Bn Exp)
    • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index 1.7%(-6.3% previously)


  • US equity markets took their biggest tumble so far this year yesterday, with the so called ‘Trump Trade’ beginning to slowly unwind. Delays in the implementation of some of Trumps big election promises are beginning to concern markets and investors.
  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Kaplan suggested the FOMC should raise rates two more times this year.
  • According to the ‘Times’, UK PM Theresa May will reject any demands for another Scottish independence Referendum.


  • Very quiet day in prospect with no key data due for release this morning or this afternoon.
  • Later this evening all eyes turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and their official cash rate decision and accompanying statement.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1556 +0.14
GBP/USD 1.2482 +0.03
EUR/USD 1.0799 -0.09
AUD/USD 0.7664 -0.33


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 29.3Bn 31.0Bn
13.00 USD House Price Index m/m 0.4% 0.4%
14.00 CHF Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin
14.00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.59M 5.69M
19.45 CAD Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
20.00 NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
20.00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement