Newsletter – 22nd June 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling remained above 1.26 against the US dollar and clawed a little ground back after Tuesday’s sell-off. Cable opened at 1.2626 and closed at 1.2670 after briefly trading above 1.27. 
  • There was a similar story for sterling against the euro with GBP/EUR trading down to but not breaching 1.13. Over the course of the day sterling gained a small amount of ground back from the euro. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1334, traded down to 1.13 then rallied to 1.14 before settling to close at 1.1349. 
  • We seem to be seeing mixed messages from the Bank of England after Governor Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that “now is not the time to raise rates”, Chief Economist Andy Haldane revealed yesterday that he seriously considered opposing Carney by voting to raise interest rates in the MPC vote earlier this month.
  • Sterling gained some confidence from this and hence we saw sterling show some strength against its peers.
  • The Queen’s speech took place yesterday with an evident focus on negotiating the UK exit from the European Union.
  • Public sector net borrowing was better than expected from the UK with a figure of 6.0B vs an expected figure of 7.3B.
  • In the US, existing home sales also beat expectations coming in at 5.62M vs 5.54M.
Overnight
  • The Royal Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged at 1.75% as expected last night.
  • GBP/NZD is currently trading 1.7437.
Today
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May is in Brussels to address EU leaders on her plans for the issue of expats’ rights after Brexit (BBC News).
  • This afternoon we expect data in the form of core retail sales m/m and retail sales m/m from Canada and unemployment claims from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1331 -0.16
GBP/USD 1.2661 -0.08
EUR/USD 1.1172 +0.04
AUD/USD 0.7549 -0.01

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.7%
13:30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% -0.2%
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 241K 237K