Newsletter – 22nd July 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing jumped to £7.2Bn in June, that was more than double the figure of £3.3Bn borrowed in June 2018 and was in fact the highest for the month of June since 2015. The ONS put the rise down to higher debt interest payments and a rise of spending on services.
  • Eurozone Current Account 29.7Bn (21.2Bn Exp)
  • Retail Sales in Canada took an unexpected fall in May as bad weather was blamed for a dip in sales of food and drink. Expecting a rise of +0.3%, sales actually fell by -0.1% on a m/m basis.
  • US Fed Member Bullard suggested a 0.25% cut to rates would be sufficient in July. Speaking Friday Bullard added that heightened trade conflict and inflation failing to reach the Fed’s target rate warranted a little lowering of borrowing costs.
  • US consumer confidence remained at favourable levels in July according to Friday’s University of Michigan survey. The survey gave a reading of 98.4 which was largely in-line with expectations.
  • The US Dollar was one of the stronger performers in FX space on Friday. Sterling closed the day down -0.32% agains the dollar at 1.2503, whilst the Euro closed the day down -0.42% at 1.1228 versus the dollar.
Over The Weekend

  • Speaking Friday night US Fed Member Rosengren appeared to buck the trend of his colleagues by stating he would be steadfast against cutting interest rates. Rosengren said as long as the economy is doing well there is no need for accommodation.
  • UK Chancellor Philip Hammond confirmed over the weekend that he would resign if Boris Johnson becomes the next PM. Hammond said signing up to a no-deal Brexit is something he could never do and that is something Boris Johnson has left open as a clear option. A number of Hammond Cabinet colleagues are likely to follow suit, however there is also an element of them jumping before being pushed.
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday in store with no data of any real note set for release.
  • Voting for the next UK Prime Minister will close later today with the result to be announced tomorrow. Boris Johnson is the overwhelming favourite to succeed Theresa May.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1122 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.2480 -0.14
EUR/USD 1.1218 -0.01
AUD/USD 0.7038 -0.01

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.8% 1.7%
16.00 JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks