Newsletter – 22nd January 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The Pound’s impressive run of 6 consecutive days of gains against the US Dollar came to an end Friday. Having been trading around the 1.3900 handle in the morning the Pound closed the day down at 1.3870 against the Dollar.
  • Sterling was under pressure against most of it’s major counterparts following weak economic data released Friday morning. UK Retail Sales dropped -1.5% in December, that was down on the expected -0.8% fall and significantly down on the 1% growth seen in the previous month.
  • According to a Bloomberg survey, economists have brought forward their estimates for when the ECB will set an end date to it’s asset purchase program, with close on half the respondents expecting an announcement in the ECB’s June meeting.
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m was one of the few prints of note during the afternoon session and at 3.4% it smashed the expected rise of 1.9%. And so the recent run of impressive Canadian economic data continues.
  • Other data of note:
    • Eurozone Current Account 32.5Bn (31.3Bn Exp)
    • Canada Foreign Securities Purchases 19.56Bn(15.76 Bn Exp)
    • US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.4 (97.0 Exp)
  • According to a Reuters poll, a large majority of economists believe the NAFTA agreement will be successfully renegotiated with only marginal changes, despite President Trump’s many threats and warnings that the US could withdraw from the trade pact with Mexico and Canada.
Over The Weekend

  • The US Government remains in shutdown as the US Senate has failed to strike a deal on short-term funding, with measures proposed by Republicans being rejected by Democrats. They are due to take another vote at 5pm today.
  • Negotiations between Angela Merkel’s CDU party and the opposition SPD are set to continue this week, as SPD members/delegates voted narrowly in favour to proceed with coalition talks.
  • Speaking to the BBC on Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron said the UK would be able to have a bespoke deal with the EU post-Brexit, but crucially added the UK could not enjoy the same level of access to the EU under Theresa May’s current Brexit plan, which sees the UK leaving the single market and the customs union.
  • Germany has raised its 2018 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%.
  • According to US Fed Member Williams significant risks to the US economy have faded for the first time since the recession and stronger growth could see the Fed having to raise interest rates at a quicker rate than anticipated.
Today
  • There is no key data set for release today, with a lack of any data to speak of in general.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1342 +0.05
GBP/USD 1.3894 +0.33
EUR/USD 1.2243 +0.24
AUD/USD 0.8000 +0.22

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.0% 1.5%