Newsletter – 22nd February 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There were a raft of PMI readings out of European member states yesterday morning, culminating in the overall Eurozone figures:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2 (50.3 Exp)
    • Flash Services PMI 52.3 (51.4 Exp)
  • UK Chancellor Philip Hammond received a timely bonus yesterday morning ahead of his spring statement next month. Britain’s public finances showed a massive surplus in January, in fact the largest monthly surplus since the records began in 1993 with income through taxes outweighing government spending to the tune of £14.9Bn.
  • The Pound did briefly rally in FX space off the back of the borrowing figures, hitting a high of the week 1.1538 against the Euro however gains were slowly eroded over the course of the day, with the Pound closing the day with small losses against most major currency counterparts.
  • There was plenty of US economic data to digest yesterday and it proved pretty mixed all in all:
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% (0.3% Exp)
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -4.1 (14.1 Exp)
    • Unemployment Claims 216K (228K Exp)
Overnight

  • The Kiwi Dollar is on the back-foot in FX space this morning following dovish comments from RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand overnight. Speaking to reporters Bascand suggested the central bank’s proposals regarding bank capital controls could raise borrowing costs and subsequently require a cut to the official lending rate.
  • The EU’s Chief Negotiator Barnier said that whilst ultimately it wasn’t up to him, he could not rule out a possible delay in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU as Theresa May continues to try and thus far fail to get concessions from Brussels to win over parliament.
  • German IFO Business Climate 98.5 (99.0 Exp)
  • Japan National Core CPI y/y 0.8% as expected.
  • German Final GDP q/q 0.00% as expected.
Today
  • Not much in the way of economic data today.
  • This afternoon is however packed full of central bankers who are due to speak.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1483 -0.17
GBP/USD 1.3025 -0.08
EUR/USD 1.1341 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7106 +0.25

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
13.30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.5% -0.6%
14.00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -2.0 -1.5
15.15 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
15.30 EUR ECB Member Draghi Speaks
17.00 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks