Newsletter – 21st September 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers plan was rejected by the 27 EU leaders in Salzburg yesterday. May had gone to Austria in the hope that the proposal would be met with encouragement from her fellow leaders but was left disappointed with French President Emmanuel Macron saying that the plan ‘will not work’.
  • European Council president Donald Tusk said ‘the suggested framework for economics co-operation will not work and the proposed trade plan ‘risks undermining the single market’.
  • May has stuck by her plan and stated that her strategy is the ‘only serious and credible proposition’ which means the chance of a no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out given the EU firm resistance.
  • GBP/EUR traded as high as 1.1301 yesterday but closed at 1.1267 and has since fallen further as the implications of yesterdays news is understood.
  • UK retail sales came in at 0.3% substantially beating the predicted -0.2%.
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index came in at 22.9 vs 17.5 expected.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3144 and rallied during Thursday to close at 1.3266 representing a 0.92% increase on the day.

Overnight

  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.8107, 1.9718 and 148.89.

Today

  • Sterling has weakened across the board this morning after yesterdays news from Salzburg.
  • Eurozone Flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 vs 54.4 expected and Flash services PMI came in as expected at 54.7.
  • UK public sector net borrowing has come in weaker at 5.9B vs 2.9B.
  • At 1.30pm we are expecting Canadian data in the form of CPI m/m and core retail sales m/m.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1206 -0.54
GBP/USD 1.3200 -0.50
EUR/USD 1.1778 +0.01
AUD/USD 0.7290 -0.01

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.5%
13:30 CAD Core retail sales m/m 0.6% -0.1%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y   1.9%
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y   2.0%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y   2.1%