Newsletter – 21st May 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • There were just the two prints of note released Friday morning, and both out of the Eurozone:
    • Current Account (March) 32.0Bn (35.1Bn Exp)
    • Trade Balance (March) 21.2Bn (20.7Bn Exp)Canadian data was in focus Friday afternoon, with Inflation and Retail Sales headlining.
  • The month-on-month inflation print of 0.3% was in-line with expectations, which meant Canada’s annual inflation rate remained above 2% for a third straight month, rising 2.2% on a one-year basis in April.
  • Canadian Retail Sales were boosted in March by the sales of motor vehicles and clothing, with the actual figure of 0.6%double the 0.3% expected.
  • The US Dollar enjoyed another strong day in FX markets Friday, despite a lack of data. The Dollar index rallied by around 0.25% on the day. The Dollar pushed Sterling back below the 1.3500 handle, and similarly the Euro back below the 1.1800 level on Friday.
Over The Weekend and This Morning

  • The United States and China have agreed to put their trade war on hold for now following progress made in their talks aimed at reducing America’s huge trade deficit with China. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said ‘meaningful progress had been made’ and that the US would hold off on the proposed $150Bn worth of tariffs on Chinese products.
  • The US Dollar has enjoyed a strong start to the day following this news.
  • According to ECB Member Jens Weidmann expectations that the ECB could wind down their QE program by the end of the year are ‘thoroughly plausible’, adding that announcing and end date soon would be prudent.
  • New Zealand Retail Sales q/q 0.1% (1.0% Exp)
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals m/m -1.3% (-1.5% Prior)
  • UK Rightmove HPI m/m 0.8% (0.4% Prior)
  • Japan Trade Balance 0.55Tn (0.11Tn Exp)
  • Complete lack of data set for release today.
  • Worth noting Germany, France and Switzerland have bank holidays (Whit Monday).
  • Canada will also be celebrating Victoria Day.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1440 +0.03
GBP/USD 1.3411 -0.34
EUR/USD 1.1724 -0.37
AUD/USD 0.7509 +0.04


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.3%
16.30 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks