Newsletter – 21st March 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The news broke yesterday that Prime Minister Theresa May will officially trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
  • Sterling did weaken slightly against the other majors however the timing did not come as much of a surprise to the markets.
  • GBP/EUR dipped from 1.1528 to 1.1508 on the day and GBP/USD closed at 1.2357 after falling from the daily high of 1.2435
  • Although the process to withdraw from the EU will begin this month, it is expected that May will begin the exit negotiations with her European counterparts in June.
  • When the announcment was made, PM May was in Swansea to sign off the Swansea Bay City Region deal which will provide £1.3bn of investment to the area. If you follow us on social media, you will have noticed that the Prime Minister held a press conference and signed the paperwork in our very own OSTC FX Suite at the Liberty Stadium.
Overnight
  • Australian HPI q/q came in stronger than expected at 4.1% vs the estimate of 2.4%.
  • GBP/AUD currently trading around the 1.6061 area.
Today
  • This morning we have keenly anticipated inflation data from the UK with the pick being CPI y/y at 9.30am expected to come in at 2.1%.
  • This is followed by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaking at a panel in London to discuss ethics and culture in banking at the Bank of England.
  • We also have retail sales data from Canada at 12.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1477 -0.27
GBP/USD 1.2395 +0.31
EUR/USD 1.1478 -0.26
AUD/USD 0.7715 -0.15

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP CPI y/y 2.1% 1.8%
09:30 GBP PPI Input m/m 0.2% 1.7%
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 2.9B -9.8B
09:30 GBP RPI y/y 2.9% 2.6%
10:35 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
10:35 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
12:30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 1.3% -0.3%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales m/m 1.5% -0.5%