Newsletter – 21st February 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The euro lost ground on sterling and the US dollar yesterday with EUR/USD falling by 0.57% and GBP/EUR gaining by 0.58%. EUR/USD opened at 1.2407 and closed at 1.2336 and GBP/EUR opened at 1.1278 and closed at 1.1344.
  • GBP/USD traded a high of 1.4024 and a low of 1.3915 before closing 2 points lower than the open at 1.3993.
  • A letter signed by 62 Tory Brexiteers has urged PM Theresa may to stand up to the EU and stick to the Brexit ideals that were outlined in her Lancaster House speech one year ago. Those that signed the letter offered the Prime Minister then continuing support.
  • The Express reported that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has labelled the Brexit negotiations a ‘mess’ during a meeting with German officials.
  • In what was a quiet day in terms of economic data, we did see German ZEW economic sentiment come in better than expected at 17.8 vs 16.0.
  • We had some data from Australia released overnight. Construction work done q/q came in far weaker than expected at -19.4% vs -9.8% expected but wage price index q/q came in stronger than expected at 0.6% vs 0.5% expected.
  • This morning French flash manufacturing and services PMI both came in weaker than expected at 56.1 (vs 58.1 and 57.9)
  • German flash manufacturing and services PMI came in at 60.3 and 55.3.
  • Euruzone manufacturing PMI came in at 58.5 vs 59.2 expected and services PMI came in at 56.7 vs 57.7.
  • At 9.30am we expect data from UK in the form of average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, public sector net borrowing and unemployment rate.
  • The UK inflation report hearings are to be released at 2.15pm before US existing home sales at 3pm.
  • This evening the minutes from the previous FOMC meeting will be released at 7pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1323 -0.19
GBP/USD 1.3957 -0.24
EUR/USD 1.2322 -0.12
AUD/USD 0.7852 -0.37


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 2.5%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 2.3K 8.6K
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -11.5B 1.0B
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3%
14:15 GBP Inflation report hearings
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes