Newsletter – 21st August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was no economic data of any note released yesterday.
  • According to German ECB member Weidmann the ECB is on course to normalise monetary policy and that interest rates would likely rise gradually as a result. Speaking on the Turkish crisis, Weidmann added that the impact on German banks would be limited.
  • According to the EU Brexit talks with the UK will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with new UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab due to meet Michel Barnier Tuesday afternoon.
  • Staying with Brexit and EU Minister Moscovici said the Brexit vote could in theory be reversed although the likelihood is that it will still go ahead. He added that any decision to reverse would ultimately be up to the British themselves.
Overnight

  • The biggest move in FX space occurred in the evening yesterday and continued overnight following comments from US President Donald Trump. The US Dollar was weakened as Trump said he was ‘not thrilled’ with the Federal Reserve for hiking interest rates and that instead the central bank should be helping him boost the economy. The independence of the Federal Reserve is seen as crucial to the stability of the economy.
  • Donald Trump also said yesterday that he didn’t expect too much progress to be made in trade talks with China this week, with negotiators from the two countries due to meet.
  • According to minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent monetary policy meeting keeping rates on hold at 1.50% will be key to helping reduce the jobless rate and to lift wage growth over time.
  • Swiss Trade Balance 2.26Bn (2.85Bn Exp)
Today
  • UK borrowing figures will be in focus this morning, due at 9.30am.
  • Not a great deal of data set for release otherwise today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1141 +0.07
GBP/USD 1.2830 +0.27
EUR/USD 1.1513 +0.28
AUD/USD 0.7351 +0.18

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -2.1Bn 4.5Bn
11.00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 10 11
13.30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.7% 1.2%
TBC NZD GDT Price Index 0.0%
23.45 NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.4% 0.1%