Newsletter – 20th September 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling had mixed fortunes on Tuesday losing ground on the euro but gaining against the US dollar.
  • GBP/EUR fell by 28 pips after opening at 1.1287 and closing at 1.1259 representing a quarter of a percent fall on the day.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3495 and traded as low as 1.3468 and as high as 1.3618 before closing at 1.3510.
  • US President Donald Trump was speaking at the UN and he warned that should North Korea attack the US or its allies, then it would be ‘totally destroyed’. He also warned Kim Jong Un that he is on a suicide mission for himself.
  • Rumours were circulating yesterday that Boris Johnson could resign from the Cabinet however these were rebuffed by the Prime Minister who said that the foreign secretary was doing good work and she expected him to remain in his role.
  • PM May also said that she expects the whole Cabinet to agree on her Brexit strategy as she prepares for a major speech on the UK leaving the EU on Friday.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment came in stronger than expected yesterday at 17 versus the expected value of 12.3.
  • US building permits beat expectations at 1.30m vs 1.22m with import prices m/m also coming in higher than expected at 0.6% vs 0.4%.
  • US current account data was weaker at -123B vs -115B.
Overnight
  • New Zealand released better than expected current account data with the expected figure of -0.82B proving to be lower than the actual figure of -0.8B.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.6825, 1.8391 and 150.59, respectively.
Today
  • This morning we expect retail sales m/m from the UK at 9.30am to come in at 0.2%.
  • This afternoon we have existing home sales from the US at 3pm with an expected figure of 5.46M.
  • All eyes then turn to the FOMC statement and Fed rate release at 7pm UK time.
  • The Fed rate is expected to stay at <1.25% and this will be followed by the FOMC press conference at 7.30pm.
  • Later this evening at 11.45pm we expect GDP q/q from New Zealand.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1261 +0.01
GBP/USD 1.3518 +0.06
EUR/USD 1.2002 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.8037 +0.34

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.3%
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.46M 5.44M
19:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <1.25% <1.25%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
23:45 NZD GDP q/q 0.8% 0.5%