Newsletter – 20th October 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • UK Retail Sales dissapointed massively yesterday morning, expecting a decline of -0.1% for September the actual print showed sales were down -0.8%; almost entirely wiping out the increase of +0.9% reported in August. According to government statisticians retail sales will make virtually no contribution towards the UK’s GDP in Q3.
  • This weaker than expected print put sterling on the back-foot during the morning’s trading and underpinned weakness for the remainder of the day.
  • GBP/USD closed the day down -0.37% at 1.3156, whilst GBP/EUR fell even further, down some -0.70% on the day at 1.1117.
  • According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel progress has been made in Brexit talks, however much like comments from all those on the EU’s side, she said the talks are still insufficient to progress on to the second phase.
  • We had to wait until 1.30pm for our next fix of key data yesterday and it came in the form of US Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Both prints bettered expectations with 222,000 individuals filing for unemployment insurance, down on the 240,000 expected. Whilst the Philly Fed index jumped to 27.9 which was its highest reading since May and smashed the 21.9 forecast.
  • The US Dollar Index did see a degree of strengthening following these numbers but still closed the day down -0.20%.
  • The Kiwi Dollar was by far yesterday’s worst performing currency, as it continued to accrue losses following the news that the opposition Labour party may have gained enough support to form a new coalition government. The Labour leader, Jacinda Ardern, would become New Zealand’s youngest PM at just 37 years old.

  • Speaking yesterday evening the Bank of England’s Dep Gov Cunliffe said he did not see any signs of pay pressure or sustained signs of domestic inflationary pressures, citing current inflation as purely Brexit-driven (Weak Pound). Whilst he did acknowledge interest rates would need to be hiked in the future, it was clear he does not think that is anytime soon.
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals m/m +0.3% (-0.3% Previous)
  • According to a Bloomberg article a Catalan Separatist Group have urged their supporters to withdraw their money from Sabadell and CaixaBank in protest against the bank’s moving their legal domiciles out of the region.
  • German PPI m/m +0.3% (0.1% Exp)
  • Distinct lack of data set for release today.
  • The only figure of note this morning is UK Government Borrowing due at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon key data includes Canadian CPI and Retail Sales at 1.30pm.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1118 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.3123 -0.25
EUR/USD 1.1799 -0.43
AUD/USD 0.7850 -0.34


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 26.2Bn 25.1Bn
09.30 GBP Public Net Sector Borrowing 5.7Bn 5.1Bn
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
13.30 CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.4%
15.00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.30M 5.35M