Newsletter – 20th November 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • According to figures from the ECB, the Eurozone’s current account was better than expected in September, hitting a record surplus of 37.8 Billion, up from 34.5 Billion in August.
  • ECB President Draghi said the Governing Council have increasing confidence that the Eurozone recovery is robust and will continue going forward, but did add he does not believe inflation can be self-sustained without continued accomodative policy.
  • According to UK Brexit Minister David Davis it is Germany and France who are blocking progress in Brexit talks, with many other EU countries wanting talks to advance to the next stage.
  • Canadian CPI m/m 0.1% as expected (October).
  • US Building Permits 1.30M (1.25M Exp).
  • US Housing Starts 1.29M (1.19M Exp).
  • Speaking Friday afternoon EU Council President Donald Tusk said he felt safer following his meeting with Theresa May, and that good will was visible from both sides. He believed there was still a chance for Brexit talks to move on to the next phase in December.
  • The German economy will strengthen by +2.3% in 2017 according to the Ifo institute. That is revised up from +1.9%.
Over The Weekend

  • The Euro is on the back-foot this morning, with uncertainty rattling German markets as Chancellor Merkel’s attempts to form a Government appear to have collapsed overnight. Ms Merkel’s Conservative alliance were expected to form a coalition Government with two other parties, however the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) have unexpectedly pulled out after 4-weeks of negotiations.
  • According to the FT, Brexit Ministers are prepared to back UK PM’s Theresa May’s increased offer of €40Bn for the Brexit Bill.
  • Despite being sacked by his own party, Robert Mugabe has continued to defy those calls for his resignation and so still remains President of Zimbabwe for now.
  • Japan Trade Balance 0.32 Trillion (0.21 Trillion Exp)
  • German PPI m/m 0.3% (0.2% Exp)
  • Quiet day in prospect with no economic data of any note set for release.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi is due to testify before a European Parliamentary committee later this afternoon.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1239 +0.29
GBP/USD 1.3263 +0.37
EUR/USD 1.1801 +0.11
AUD/USD 0.7568 +0.06


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
14.00 CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.0%
14.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
15.00 USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% -0.2%
16.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
18.30 GBP BOE Member Ramsden Speaks