Newsletter – 20th May 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • There was no respite for Sterling on Friday, with the recent Brexit related slump continuing and pushing the pound down to fresh new lows.
  • With no economic data set for release, the Pound took another hit as Brexit talks between Labour and the UK Government officially came to an end with seemingly no progress or common ground established. Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said negotiations were halted due to ‘increasing weakness and instability’ amongst Theresa May’s Cabinet.
  • With the talks concluded, and Theresa May under increasing pressure to quit as PM from her own party, the chances of a no-deal Brexit are ratcheted up which reflects the fall in the Pound.
  • GBP/EUR closed Friday down -0.40% at 1.1402, having hit a 3-month low of 1.1389 during the afternoon.
  • GBP/USD similarly closed down -0.49% at 1.2730, having hit a 4-month low of 1.2719 during the afternoon.
  • Eurozone Inflation came in at 1.7% on an annual basis in April as confirmed Friday morning. That was in-line with expectations but up from a reading of 1.4% in March which may offer the European Central Bank some relief as they target inflation at 2%.
  • US consumer confidence surged in May according to the latest University of Michigan survey. The reading of 102.4 far exceeded the 97.8 forecast and represented a 15-year high as consumers appeared to shrug off any concerns about the trade war with China.
Over The Weekend

  • Despite some solid looking data out of Japan overnight the Yen is on the back-foot in FX markets this morning. The Yen was however a key beneficiary of the flare up in US-China trade relations last week so perhaps just the effects of that are fading slightly.
  • Japan Prelim GDP q/q +0.5% (-0.1% Exp)
  • Japan Revised Industrial Production m/m -0.6% (-0.9% Exp)
  • German PPI m/m +0.5% (+0.4% Exp)
  • UK PM Theresa May has said a ‘new and improved’ Brexit deal would be put before the commons when she asks MP’s for a fourth time to get behind her deal in June.
Today
  • Very little on the data front today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1419 +0.36
GBP/USD 1.2753 +0.31
EUR/USD 1.1165 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.6933 +0.98

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
14.30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
17.30 GBP BOE Member Broadbent Speaks
18.05 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks