Newsletter – 20 January 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Yesterday proved a solid day for Sterling in FX space, underpinned by Mrs May once again. This time around the UK PM was addressing an audience in Davos at the World Economic Forum in which she once again reiterated her vision for the UK post-Brexit as a world leader that would be a strong advocate for business, free markets and free trade.
  • Sterling closed European trading up around 0.3% versus the US Dollar and the Euro, but was unable to make a clean break through the 1.1600 handle versus the Euro or close the day above 1.2300 versus the Dollar.
  • Typically a key event, yesterday’s ECB rate decision and accompanying press conference was largely tame. As expected interest rates were kept on hold at 0.00%, whilst the ECB’s bond buying program was unaltered. ECB President Draghi’s comments in the presser were largely seen as dovish with the Euro subsequently weakening in FX space; amongst them was a suggestion that the recent rise in inflation was down to higher energy prices and not due to underlying inflationary momentum within the Eurozone.
  • The US Dollar had a strong finish to yesterday’s trading following the release of some encouraging economic data:
    • Building Permits 1.21M (1.22M Exp)
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 23.6 (16.3 Exp)
    • Unemployment Claims 234K (252K Exp)
    • Housing Starts 1.23M (1.19M Exp)


  • Key economic data out of China overnight:
    • Chinese GDP q/y 6.8% (6.7% Exp)
    • Chinese Industrial Production y/y 6.0% (6.1% Exp)


  • Relatively quiet calendar today however we do have some key data in the mix. This morning UK Retail Sales takes centre stage at 9.30am with m/m sales expected down 0.1%. Canadian economic data is the main event this afternoon with Inflation & Retail Sales data due at 1.30pm.
  • Tonight is the night Donald Trump officially becomes the 45thPresident of the United States of America. His inauguration speech will be closely watched by the world and markets alike.


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1569 -0.03
GBP/USD 1.2343 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.0664 +0.02
AUD/USD 0.7549 -0.12


Current at time of distribution

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.2%
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.0% -0.4%
13.30 CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
14.00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
TBC USD President-Elect Trump Speaks
18.00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks