Newsletter – 2 March 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • Strong day for the US Dollar yesterday. The greenback’s strength continued to be underpinned by President Trump’s rousing, if not slightly lacking in detail, speech and also the persisting Hawkish (Rate Hike) rhetoric coming from various members of the US Federal Reserve.
  • The Dollar was further bolstered by a solid ISM Manufacturing PMI print yesterday afternoon, with a reading of 57.7 against an expected 56.2.
  • Sterling was just one of many currencies that fell under the weight of the strong Dollar yesterday, with the pair trading as low as 1.2280 (5 week low).
  • Sterling’s losses were in part at least self-inflicted however, with the Pound weak across the board following a disappointing UK Manufacturing PMI print of 54.6 (55.9 Exp).
  • The Bank of Canada opted to keep benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.50% as expected, however warned there were considerable uncertainties weighing on economic outlook.
  • Speaking yesterday evening Fed Member Kaplan once again stated that the US economy was strong enough for rate increases.


  • RBNZ Governor Wheeler reiterated his view that interest rate risk is equally balanced.
  • Speaking overnight US Fed Member Brainard, who is typically more cautious (Dovish), said that a rate hike would “likely be appropriate soon” as near term risks to the economy had diminished.
  • Australian Building Approvals m/m 1.8% (-0.1% Exp)
  • Australian Trade Balance 1.30Bn (3.82Bn Exp)
  • The House of Lords voted 358 to 256 in favour of the UK Government guaranteeing EU nationals the right to stay in the UK following Brexit. However it is believed Mrs May will use her majority in the commons to overthrow this vote.


  • Relatively empty data calendar however there are a few Key pieces of data to be released.
  • First up at 9.30am is UK Construction PMI with an expected reading of 52.2.
  • Then at 1.30pm we get the release of both US Unemployment Claims (243K Exp) and Canadian GDP m/m (0.3% Exp).


Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1658 +0.04
GBP/USD 1.2285 -0.05
EUR/USD 1.0536 -0.09
AUD/USD 0.7653 -0.26


Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.0% 12.0%
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.2 52.2
10.00 EUR Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% 1.8%
12.30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -38.8%
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.4%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 243K 244K
18.00 CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks