Newsletter – 3rd September 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Eurozone Inflation eased back to 2.0% in August having reached a 5 year high of 2.1% in July.
  • Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.5% (0.2% Exp)
  • The Eurozone’s overall Unemployment Rate remained at 8.2% in July as expected.
  • Negotiators from both the UK and the European Union were talking up the prospects of agreeing a Brexit deal this autumn on Friday afternoon. Speaking after talks, Michel Barnier said it was possible to have agreement in time for the EU leaders summit in October. Whilst his UK counterpart Dominic Raab said he was ‘stubbornly optimistic’ and as confident as before, if not more’ that a deal could be completed.
  • The US Dollar strengthened aggressively Friday afternoon after US President Trump backed a further $200Bn worth of tariffs against China and said the EU’s offer for no Auto Tariffs was not good enough. The Dollar continues to benefit from safety flows as the threat of a global trade war escalates once more.
  • Earlier in the day EU Commission President Juncker had said the EU would increase auto tariffs at the same level in retaliation to any action taken by the US but was hopefully an agreement could be reached.
  • US Consumer Sentiment 96.2 (95.5 Exp)
  • US Chicago PMI 63.6 (63.0 Exp)

Over The Weekend

  • Another weekend passes and yet more threats from US President Trump emerge, but this time aimed towards his own Congress. Trump has said Canada will be left out of any new NAFTA deal if a ‘fair deal for the US’ isn’t reached, he also warned Congress not to interfere or he would terminate the deal entirely.
  • Australia Retail Sales m/m 0.0% (0.3% Exp)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 as expected
  • Swiss Retail Sales y/y -0.3% (1.2% Exp)
  • Very quiet on the data front today.
  • One key print at 9.30am in UK Manufacturing PMI which could set the tone for Sterling today.
  • Please be aware it is a US and Canadian Bank Holiday.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1112 -0.46
GBP/USD 1.2906 -0.34
EUR/USD 1.1615 +0.12
AUD/USD 0.7208 +0.26


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 54.6 54.6
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.9 54.0
18.15 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks