Newsletter – 1st September 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Yesterday morning Kicked Off with a slight suprise beat on Eurozone Inflation. Expecting a y/y CPI print of 1.4%, the actual figure of 1.5% was the highest since April.
  • Released at the same time the overall Eurozone Unemployment Rate remained at 9.1%.
  • There were reports yesterday claiming ECB policymakers are becoming worried by the continued strenght of the Euro in FX space. The source suggested this could lead to a delay in the ECB decision on QE or a more gradual exit from asset purchases.
  • US Unemployment Claims were largely in-line with expectations at 236K (237K Exp).
  • Canadian GDP soared to an annualized 4.5% in the second quarter of 2017, that smashed the expected growth of 3.7% and was largely attributed to strong consumer spending. Many analysts believe this will affirm the case for another Bank of Canada rate rise this year.
  • The Canadian Dollar rallied hard in FX space of the back of this impressive data. GBP/CAD declined from 1.6340 to 1.6180 in the immediate aftermath, whilst USD/CAD went from trading 1.2660 to closing the day at 1.2500.
  • There were also a good few medium impact US Data releases:
    • Personal Spending m/m 0.3% (0.4% Exp)
    • Chicago PMI 58.9 (58.7 Exp)
    • Pending Home Sales m/m -0.8% (0.4% Exp)
Overnight

  • China’s most important political event, the Communist Party Congress, has been confirmed and will begin on the 18th October.
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (50.9 Exp)
  • Australia AIG Manufacturing Index 59.8 (56.0 Previous)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (52.8 Exp)
  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI 52.4 (54.4 Exp)
Today
  • UK Manufacturing PMI is our only key print this morning at 9.30am; reading of 55.0 expected.
  • Today is of course Non-Farm Friday and so this afternoon’s calendar is dominated by key US employment data, kicking off at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0867 +0.21
GBP/USD 1.2919 -0.07
EUR/USD 1.1888 -0.17
AUD/USD 0.7932 -0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.0 55.1
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.3%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 180K 209K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3%
14.30 CAD Manufacturing PMI 55.5
14.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.3
15.00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.4 97.6