Newsletter – 1st October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2018 as expected, according to the latest figures from the ONS.
  • The UK’s current account deficit jumped to -20.3Bn in the second quarter as money continues to flow out of the UK at a far greater rate than it’s coming in. This Q2 figure was up from -15.7Bn in Q1, and slightly wider than the -19.4Bn expected.
  • Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.1% as expected.
  • The Euro was on the back-foot in trading Friday following the new Italian Governments decision to set a 2019 budget with a deficit target three times greater than the previous administration and defying the wishes of the European Union. Italy has one of the worst debt burdens among the larger EU nations and has been under pressure from Brussels to rein in spending.
  • The Canadian economy grew at a slightly better than expected 0.2% during July, economists had expected m/m growth of 0.1%.
  • US Personal Spending m/m 0.3% as expected.
  • Speaking Friday afternoon BOE Dep Gov Ramsden said he has seen signs that investors are increasingly protecting/insuring against ‘downside’ Brexit outcomes, however he added that these moves were far smaller than the one’s seen ahead of the 2016 referendum.
Over The Weekend

  • In a surprise twist, Canada finally looks set to join the revised NAFTA as the US and Canada reached a last-minute deal Sunday night. The Canadian Dollar has rallied in FX space, hitting a 4-month high against the US Dollar.
  • German Retail Sales m/m -0.1% (0.4% Exp)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 (52.9 Exp)
  • China Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (51.2 Exp)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9 (54.1 Exp)
Today
  • Relatively busy on the economic data front for a Monday, with data from the EU, UK and US penciled in over the course of the day.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI will be in focus at 9.30am this morning.
  • US ISM Manufacturing will be the key print this afternoon.
  • Worth noting it is a Chinese bank holiday today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1254 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.3047 +0.14
EUR/USD 1.1597 -0.04
AUD/USD 0.7217 -0.08

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 53.3 53.3
09.00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.5% 10.4%
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.8
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8Bn 4.0Bn
10.00 EUR Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.2%
14.00 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.1 61.3
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.1%