Newsletter – 1st November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Eurozone data was firmly in focus yesterday morning and it proved mixed.
  • The year-on-year CPI Flash Estimate showed that Inflation in the bloc had slowed a fraction from last month and was below expectations at 1.4% (1.5% Exp).
  • Whilst in contrast Eurozone GDP for Q3 was slightly better than expected, with growth of 0.6% recorded, beating the 0.5% forecast.
  • Sterling, already buoyed by the prospect of a rate hike on Thursday, was further bolstered yesterday following comments from EU Chief Negotiator Barnier. Mr Barnier said that he was ready to speed up Brexit talks, with the agenda for the next round of talks to be announced shortly.
  • During the day’s trading GBP/EUR rallied to a high of 1.1407, whilst GBP/USD fell just shy of the 1.3300 handle.
  • There was a disappointing and unexpected fall in Canadian GDP during the month of August, with the economy shrinking -0.1% against expected growth of +0.1%. Statistics suggest this fall was largely due to maintenance shutdowns in the chemical and extractive industries.
  • The Canadian Dollar was sold-off in FX space following this data, GBP/CAD rallied to another fresh 5 month high of 1.7140 consequently.
  • Consumer confidence in the US continues to soar, this time with a CB Consumer Confidence reading of 125.9. That smashed the expected 121.1, and represented a 17-year high.
Overnight

  • New Zealand Employment Change q/q 2.2% (0.8% Exp)
  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate 4.6% (4.7% Exp)
  • UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.1% (-0.1% Previous)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (51.1 Exp)
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% as expected
Today
  • UK Manufacturing PMI is our key print this morning, with US Jobs and Manufacturing in focus this afternoon.
  • Worth noting today is an Italian and French Bank Holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1428 +0.22
GBP/USD 1.3303 +0.16
EUR/USD 1.1639 -0.06
AUD/USD 0.7680 +0.33

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.9
12.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 135K
13.30 CAD Manufacturing PMI 55.0
13.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.5
14.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.4 60.8
14.00 USD Construction Spending m/m -0.3% 0.5%
18.00 USD Federal Funds Rate <1.25% <1.25%
18.00 USD FOMC Statement