Newsletter – 1st March 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The European Commission published its own draft Brexit withdrawal treaty yesterday which showed that its stance on Irish border issue had hardened. This caused sterling to lose value on the day against the euro and US dollar.
  • GBP/USD fell from 1.3905 to close at 1.3759 representing a 1.05% decrease on the day and GBP/EUR fell from 1.1366 to close at 1.1283 representing a 0.73% decrease.
  • Eurozone CPI flash estimate y/y and core CPI flash estimate y/y both came in as expected at 1.2% and 1.0%, respectively.
  • US preliminary GDP q/q came in as expected at 2.5% whereas Chicago PMI fell short of expectations coming in at 61.9 vs 64.2 estimated.
  • US Pending home sales was far weaker than expected at -4.7% vs 0.4%.
  • EUR/USD fell to its lowest rate since mid-January closing at 1.2192.
  • Australian private capital expenditure q/q came in at -0.2% vs 1.0% expected.
  • Caixan manufacturing PMI came in as expected at 51.6 vs 51.6.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading 1.7791, 1.9062 and 146.92.
  • At 9.30am we expect manufacturing PMI data from the UK alongside net lending data.
  • This afternoon at 1.30pm we look to the US and Canada where current account data from Canada, personal spending and unemployment data from the US will be released.
  • At 3pm Fed Chair Powell will be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington and we will find out the latest ISM manufacturing PMI figure.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1271 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3747 -0.09
EUR/USD 1.2190 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7727 -0.43


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.3
09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.4B 5.2B
13:30 CAD Current Account -17.8B -19.3B
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.3% 0.2%
13:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.4%
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 226K 222K
15:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.7 59.1