Newsletter – 1st February 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Eurozone Inflation data headlined yesterday morning with a year on year print of 1.3%. That was in-line with expectations but was down on the 1.4% the previous month, and still remains well below the ECB’s 2% target.
  • Touching on Inflationary issues yesterday ECB Member Benoit Coeuere said he only expects inflation to converge very gradually towards that 2% target, and it was for that reason the ECB still needs to leave an ample degree of monetary stimulus in place.
  • The US jobs market continues to power on according to yesterdays data. The ADP Non-Farm print showed the US economy had created another 234,000 jobs in the private sector during January, that comfortably surpassed the 186,000 expected.
  • The Canadian economy grew by 0.4% during the month of November as expected.

  • The US Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates on hold at 1.25-1.50% overnight. In their accompanying statement they offered nothing to suggest a 25bps wouldn’t go ahead in March as markets and traders are currently expecting. The Fed also suggested inflation would likely rise this year, and as a result they expect to see ‘further gradual’ rate increases.
  • Australia Import Prices q/q 2.0% (1.5% Exp)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 54.8 (54.4 Exp)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.5 as expected
  • UK Nationwide HPI m/m 0.6% (0.2% Exp)
  • UK Manufacturing PMI is the key print this morning due at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon there are a raft of figures out of the US, with ISM Manufacturing PMI the headline number at 3pm.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1465 +0.32
GBP/USD 1.4252 +0.46
EUR/USD 1.2431 +0.15
AUD/USD 0.8017 -0.45


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.3
12.30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -3.6%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 236K 233K
14.30 CAD Manufacturing PMI 54.7
14.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.0 59.7
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 0.8%