Newsletter – 1st August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1214 and traded a low of 1.1192  before closing slightly higher on the day at 1.1222.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3130 and then traded a high of 1.3172 and a low of 1.3090 before closing at 1.3120.
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.1705 and traded a high of 1.1746 before closing down on the day at 1.1691.
  • Canadian GDP m/m came in at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected but RMPI m/m came in far weaker than expected at 0.5% vs 2.7%.
  • From the US, employment cost index q/q came in slightly softer than expected at 0.6% vs 0.7% and personal spending m/m came in as expected at 0.4%.
  • Chicago PMI came in at 65.5 vs 61.9 expected and US consume confidence was 127.4 vs 126.5.
  • President Trump has proposed a 25% tariff of $200bn of Chinese goods after initially setting them at 10% in a bid to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions (CBNC).
  • The National Institute of Economic and Social Research have said that they expect the Bank of England to raise rates to 0.75% on Thursday but have urged the BoE to place more emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding policy in the age of Brexit and trade wars. Amit Kara said that ‘they should emphasise the fact that policy rates going forward could go in either direction and theyc an move aggressively’.
  • UK PM Theresa May is expected to hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday. PM May has been invited to Macron’s holiday retreat in the south of France.
Overnight
  • New Zealand employment change q/q came in slightly better than expected at 0.5% vs 0.4%, The unemployment rate figure was slightly higher than estimates at 4.5% vs 4.4%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY  are currently trading at 1.7710, 1.9297 and 146.92.
Today
  • UK manufacturing PMI has come in at 54.0 which falls in line with expectations.
  • At 1.15pm we have ADP non-farm employment change and this will be followed by ISM manufacturing PMI at 3pm.
  • Later this evening we expect the US Federal Reserve to keep the rate at <2.00% and will be released along with the FOMC statement.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1222 +0.00
GBP/USD 1.3117 -0.03
EUR/USD 1.1688 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7406 -0.24

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:15 USD ADP Non-farm Employment Change 186K 177K
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.4 60.2
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <2.00% <2.00%