- Trading proved fairly muted yesterday morning with moves in FX space fairly limited.
- The Euro did find some brief strength following the release of inflation data, with a Eurozone CPI print of 1.3% y/y. Whilst this was in-line with expectations there was a slight beat on the Core CPI print (Measure Excluding Food, Energy, tobacco and alcohol) of 1.2% vs 1.1% Exp.
- Speaking yesterday morning, A spokesman for UK PM Theresa May stated that the free movement of EU citizens to Britain would come to an end in March 2019.
- Despite the obvious ramifications of such a statement the Pound was in fact trading solidly yesterday morning and into the afternoon.
- UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.6Bn (4.9Bn Exp).
- Just the two US Data releases yesterday afternoon and they were very contrasting with Chicago PMI falling well below expectations at 58.9 (60.8 Exp), whilst Pending Home Sales m/m was much better than expected at 1.5% (0.9% Exp).
- Despite any one obvious cause or trigger, the US Dollar got hammered yesterday afternoon and into the close of European trading. Arguably it was just a combination of economic and political factors which have been the root cause of Dollar weakness of late.
- As the Dollar Index plummeted to fresh 13 month lows, we saw GBP/USD hit a fresh 11 month high of 1.3221, whilst EUR/USD surged to a 32 month high of 1.1845.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates at1.50% as expected overnight.
- Speaking afterwards RBA Governor Lowe stated that the Aussie Dollars recent appreciation was hurting job creation and economic activity, and that the strengthening Dollar would lead to a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than they had currently forecast.
- US President Trump has fired his Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci after just 11 days in the job.
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.1 (50.5 Exp)
- Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.0 (54.9 Exp)
- There a number of key prints that could cause movement over the course of today.
- This morning UK Manufacturing PMI will be key at 9.30am (54.4 Exp) followed closely by Eurozone GDP data (0.6% Exp) at 10.00am.
- This afternoon we look to the US and the ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 3pm (56.4 Exp).
- Worth noting that today is a Swiss National Bank Holiday.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09.30||GBP||UK Manufacturing PMI||54.4||54.3|
|10.00||EUR||Prelim Flash GDP q/q||0.6%||0.6%|
|13.30||USD||Core PCE Price Index m/m||0.1%||0.1%|
|13.30||USD||Personal Spending m/m||0.1%||0.1%|
|15.00||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI||56.4||57.8|
|TBC||NZD||GDT Price Index||0.2%|
|23.45||NZD||Employment Change q/q||0.7%||1.2%|