- UK Retail Sales tanked in September following a large drop in food sales. Expecting a fall of -0.4% the actual print was twice as bad at -0.8% m/m. The Pound did slip a fraction in FX space following the print but ultimately Brexit-related matters continue to dominate movements in the Pound.
- In fact the Pound was largely on the back-foot all day following the morning’s revelations that the Brexit transitional period could be extended. Whilst Government sources suggested the extension would be for just a few months longer (Currently extension to run to Dec 2020) that could prove completely unpalatable to the Brexit-backing MP’s within the Government and to those voters who want out of the EU pronto.
- Having been trading around 1.3115 at the start of the morning, sterling quickly slipped below the 1.3100 handle before eventually closing the day down at 1.3050 against the US Dollar.
- Losses against the Euro were however limited as the EU and Italy remain at loggerheads over Italy’s proposed expansion to its 2019 budget, with the European Commission set to send a letter to Rome asking for clarification on the proposed budget.
- Whilst GBP/EUR traded steadily, closing the day at 1.1378, the Euro slipped to 1.1469 against the US Dollar, down 0.27% on the day.
- US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 22.2 (19.7 Exp)
- US Unemployment Claims 210K (211K Exp)
- The EU Commission letter to Italy warned Rome that their 2019 budget draft was in particularly serious breach of EU budget rules, with planned spending too high leading to a rise in the structural deficit and a public debt that would not fall into line with EU rules.
- Japan National Core CPI y/y 1.0% as expected
- China GDP q/y 6.5% (6.6% Exp)
- China Industrial Production y/y 5.8% (6.0% Exp)
- Economists at Goldman Sachs believe the US Fed will hike rates 5 more times through to the end of 2019, two more than the current market consensus.
- Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales data will be in focus today, with both figures due at 1.30pm.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09.30||GBP||Public Net Sector Borrowing||4.6Bn||5.9Bn|
|13.30||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||0.1%||0.9%|
|15.00||USD||Existing Home Sales||5.29M||5.34M|
|17.00||USD||Fed Member Bostic Speaks|
|17.10||GBP||BOE Gov Carney Speaks|