Newsletter – 19th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Having been hammered on Thursday as Theresa May’s draft Brexit divorce deal came under further fire and two of her cabinet ministers resigned, the Pound steadied somewhat on Friday.
  • October’s Eurozone Final CPI y/y reading came in as expected at 2.2%.
  • Italian Trade Balance 1.27Bn (2.87Bn Exp)
  • According to Tory MP and member of the Euro skeptic ERG, Steve Baker, there were close to the required 48 letters submitted to trigger a vote of no confidence on Friday afternoon.
  • Following the resignation of Dominic Raab, Stephen Barclay was named the new Brexit Secretary on Friday, with Amber Rudd rejoining the PM’s cabinet as Work and Pensions Minister.
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.2% (0.1% Exp)
  • US Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% (78.3% Exp)
  • According to Reuters the European Commission will move to discipline Italy over its controversial 2019 budget. Politicians in Rome have refused to amend their budget following the EU’s objections to their plans to borrow and spend more next year.
Over The Weekend

  • Having been besieged last week there has been some respite for the Pound this morning, with most major Sterling pairs currently up over +0.30%.
  • Unsurprisingly Brexit and Theresa May related stories have dominated over the weekend:
    • According to Tory MP Nadine Dorries as many as 90% of Conservative MP’s no longer want Theresa May to remain in charge.
    • Very much aware of the pressure on her from within her own party, Theresa May has insisted a challenge to her leadership would only serve to distract from negotiations with the EU and that a new PM would face exactly the same issues with no other deal available.
    • The PM is also coming under pressure to reveal economic analysis on how her Brexit deal would compare to Britain’s prospects of remaining in the EU.
  • According to the EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier the Brexit transition period could be extended out as far as 2022 to allow extra time on negotiation of a future trading relationship.
  • Japan Trade Balance -0.30Tn (-0.48Tn Exp)
  • UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m -1.7% (+1.0% Previous)
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday on the data front.
  • Perhaps stating the obvious but it will be a crucial week for Theresa May as she attempts to garner support from business leaders and more importantly her own MP’s ahead of the EU leaders summit on Sunday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1257 +0.20
GBP/USD 1.2853 +0.25
EUR/USD 1.1419 +0.03
AUD/USD 0.7309 -0.28

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 24.2Bn 23.9Bn
09.00 EUR ECB Financial Stability Report
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
15.00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 67 68
15.45 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks