Newsletter – 19th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow yesterday told MPs that there will be no ‘meaningful vote’ on PM May’s deal unless a new deal that is not “substantially the same” is brought to the table.
  • Mr Bercow cited a convention dating back to 1604 that a defeated motion could not be brought back in the same form during the course of a parliamentary session (BBC).
  • BBC Political editor Laura Kuenssberg said that the Speaker’s judgment makes it less likely that Mrs May will ask for a short extension and we will likely see a long delay to the Brexit date.
  • According to Bloomberg, Mrs May had been working to put her deal back to the House of Commons for approval by Wednesday, with a vote penciled in for Tuesday. The Speaker’s ruling makes it likely that the prime minister will have to request an extension which could delay Brexit by “9 to 12 months”.
  • Junior Brexit Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said on Monday that he believes there is still a chance parliament would approve PM May’s deal this week.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1737, traded a high of 1.1749, a low of 1.1636 and closed down 0.45% at 1.1684.
  • Sterling also weakened against the US dollar with cable opening at 1.3294 and trading a low of 1.3183 before closing at 1.3253.
  • EUR/USD rallied by a tenth of a percent on Monday after opening at 1.1319 and closing at 1.1335.
Overnight
  • Australian HPI q/q came in weaker than expected at -2.4% vs -1.9% expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.8689 (+0.19%), 1.9341 (+0.02) and 147.57 (-0.08%).
Today
  • At 9.30am we expect to see the latest UK average earnings index 3m/y figure. The previous figure was 3.4% and today’s is expected to come in at 3.2%. The UK unemployment rate is expected to be released at the same time.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment will be released at 10am.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1682 -0.02
GBP/USD 1.3264 +0.08
EUR/USD 1.1353 +0.16
AUD/USD 0.7096 -0.09

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.2% 3.4%
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -11.0 -13.4
21:54 NZD Current Account -3.55B -6.15B