Newsletter – 19th June 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Yesterday proved a typically quiet Monday in FX space with moves fairly limited due to a lack of data and no key speakers.
  • With no data to potentially prop it up, Sterling continued to slide steadily lower against the Euro and US Dollar over the course of the day, following a decline in the early hours of Monday morning. By the close of play Sterling was trading down at 1.1400 and 1.3240 against the Euro and Dollar respectively.
  • According to the German Bundesbank the German economy should rebound in Q2 following a weak start to 2018, but added the rebound would not match the high levels of growth seen last year. Q1 growth was just 0.3%, following 0.6% growth in Q4 of 2017.
  • Italian Trade Balance 2.94Bn (3.21Bn Exp)
  • According to an FT report a Brexit deal is highly unlikely to take place until at least the end of 2018, with negotiations still in deadlock over the Irish Border issue and continuing chaos at Westminster.

  • The Aussie Dollar is on the defensive this morning following the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent policy meeting. Crucially in this meeting the bank’s previous stance that ‘more likely the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down’ was dropped from the minutes, suggesting the RBA is now less keen on raising interest rates anytime soon.
  • The Trade War between the US and China continues to rumble on. With China looking set to retaliate to President Trumps most recent round of $50Bn worth of tariffs, the President has threatened to impose tariffs on a further $200Bn worth of Chinese goods should Beijing go through with said retaliation.
  • Australia HPI q/q -0.7% (-0.9% Exp)
  • Another quiet day as far as data is concerned with very little set for release.
  • We do however hear from ECB President Mario Draghi this morning.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1395 +0.01
GBP/USD 1.3211 -0.25
EUR/USD 1.1590 -0.27
AUD/USD 0.7376 -0.62


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 30.3Bn 32.0Bn
13.30 USD Building Permits 1.35M 1.36M
13.30 USD Housing Starts 1.31M 1.29M
TBC NZD GDT Price Index -1.3%