Newsletter – 19th December 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The cabinet has decided to ‘ramp up’ preparations for a no-deal Brexit according to the BBC. It allocated £2bn to ministries to set aside in case the UK leaves the EU on the 29th March with no deal. Letters will be sent to 140,000 firms updating them on what they should do and 3500 troops will be put on standby to help government departments. (BBC News)
  • Business groups have criticised politicians claiming that rather than preparing for Brexit, they have focused on in-fighting and the game of politics. A joint statement by the British Chamber of Commerce, the Confederation of British Industry, the EEF, the Federal of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors argued that there is not enough time to prepare for a ‘no-deal’ scenario and also that the ‘no-deal’ scenario is not credible.
  • The SNP and other opposition parties have have tabled a vote of no confidence in the UK government but it is understood the government only has to react to motions from the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn.
  • It was a quiet day in terms of data releases; the German Ifo business climate came out at 101.0 vs 101.8 expected and US building permits came in at 1.33m vs 1.27m. 
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1116, traded a high of 1.1154, a low of 1.1099 and closed at 1.1124 representing a gain of 0.07% on the day.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2619, traded a high of 1.2679, a low of 1.2610 and closed at 1.2665 representing an increase of 0.24%.
Overnight
  • New Zealand Westpac consumer sentiment came in at 109.1 and NZ current account data came in at -6.15B vs 5.94B expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.7583, 1.8447 and 142.14, respectively.
Today
  • At 9.30am  we have inflation data from the UK followed by inflation data from the US at 1.30pm.
  • The Fed rate is expected to be increased to <2.50% this evening and the accompanying press conference is set to take place at 7.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1093 -0.28
GBP/USD 1.2650 +0.13
EUR/USD 1.1402 +0.37
AUD/USD 0.7195 +0.24

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP CPI y/y 2.3% 2.4%
09:30 GBP PPI Input m/m -2.9% 0.8%
09:30 GBP RPI y/y 3.2% 3.3%
13:30 CAD CPI m/m -0.4% 0.3%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
19:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Federal Reserve Rate <2.50% <2.25%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference