Newsletter – 18th September 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Having made substantial gains in FX space following the Bank of England meeting the previous day, sterling was given another lift Friday morning following a speech from BOE member Gertjan Vlieghe. Typically one of the committees more Dovish members and least likely to back a rate rise, Mr Vlieghe appeared to completely change his stance stating that due to current trends ‘the appropriate time for a rise in bank rate might be as early as in the coming months’.
  • GBP/EUR rallied from 1.1270 to 1.1377, whilst GBP/USD rallied from 1.3438 to 1.3532.
  • Eurozone Trade Balance 18.6Bn (20.1Bn Exp).
  • Speaking Friday morning ECB member Lautenschleager suggested a degree of monetary accommodation was still required to bring inflation back on a stable trend towards the ECB’s target level. However she also noted it was now time to take a decision on scaling back the bond purchasing program, to begin in 2018.
  • There was yet more disappointing US economic data released Friday afternoon:
  • Retail Sales m/m -0.2% (0.1% Exp)
  • Capacity Utilization Rate 76.1% (76.8% Exp)
  • Industrial Production m/m -0.9% (0.1% Exp)
  • According to a Sky News report, Brexit Secretary David Davis told business leaders on Friday that the UK’s EU divorce bill was now at £60Bn and falling. He also told the assembled leaders that the UK would strike a comprehensive free-trade deal with the EU post-Brexit.
  • Substantial drop in the US Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. The model suggests that Q3 growth has fallen from +3.0% to+2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Overnight

  • Speaking over the weekend ECB Member Peter Praet said it was ‘not yet’ time for the ECB to reduce accomodation, stressing that interest rates won’t rise before QE comes to an end. He also stated that the Central Bank would react ‘mercilessly’ if Inflation does take off.
  • UK Rightmove HPI m/m -1.2% (-0.9% Prior)
  • New Zealand August Services PMI 57.3 (56.0 Exp)
Today
  • Slightly more data than usual for a Monday however still nothing of real significance. Eurozone Final CPI y/y will be the most closely watched figure, due at 10am.
  • Worth noting that today is a Japanese Bank Holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1362 -0.10
GBP/USD 1.3551 +0.88
EUR/USD 1.1924 +0.04
AUD/USD 0.8006 +0.14

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.89Bn 4.50Bn
10.00 EUR Eurozone Final CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13.30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 4.46Bn -0.92Bn
15.00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 67 68
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.5%
16.00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks