Newsletter – 18th May 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Trading was fairly muted yesterday morning with no high impact data set for release.
  • Italian Trade Balance 4.53Bn (3.74Bn Exp)
  • There were reports doing the rounds yesterday morning that the UK was prepared to stay within the EU customs Union beyond 2021, with Theresa May reportedly ‘outgunning’ her Brexiteer cabinet members. That story was however rebuffed by the PM’s office later in the morning.
  • According to a survey of economists released by Bloomberg yesterday morning, 60% of the respondents believe the Bank of England will raise interest rates at their August meeting.
  • US Unemployment Claims 222K (216K Exp)
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 34.4 (21.1 Exp)
  • Back to the UK Government, and late yesterday afternoon reports emerged that Theresa May’s Cabinet have agreed upon a ‘backstop’ option to prevent a hard border in Ireland post-Brexit in the event there is no deal on their preferred customs arrangement. The ‘Backstop’ would see the UK matching EU tariffs after 2020.
  • President Trump’s aggressive trade tactics show no sign of letting up. Trump has reportedly pressed German Chancellor Merkel to put the breaks on a major gas deal with Russia in order for the European Union to avoid a trade war with the US.
Overnight

  • NAFTA negotiations looks set to be dragged into 2019 as a US Trade Chief says a deal on the renegotiation is ‘nowhere near close’.
  • In stark contrast, and just hours earlier, Canadian PM Trudeau had said he was feeling positive about NAFTA talks, and that they were down to the last conversations with a deal close.
  • In their attempts to allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran, despit US sanctions, the EU is in the process of revising the so called ‘blocking statute’ which was introduced in 1996 to circumvent US sanctions on Cuba.
  • Japan National Core CPI y/y 0.7% (0.8% Exp)
  • German PPI m/m 0.5% (0.3% Exp)
Today
  • Could prove a fairly quiet end to the week’s trading with limited data releases.
  • Eurozone Current Account and Trade Balance will headline this morning, with Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales in focus this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1429 -0.23
GBP/USD 1.3509 -0.04
EUR/USD 1.1818 +0.22
AUD/USD 0.7519 +0.12

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 35.1Bn 35.1Bn
10.00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance 20.7Bn 21.0Bn
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
13.30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.0%
14.15 USD Fed Member Brainard Speaks