Newsletter – 18th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Eurozone Inflation hit 1.5% year-on-year in February as expected.
  • Sterling finished the week positively on Friday, consolidating the impressive gains made over the course of the week and then some.
  • GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3280, having opened Monday morning at 1.2980.
  • GBP/EUR closed the week at 1.1730, having opened Monday morning at 1.1560.
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.0% (0.4% Exp)
  • Raft of more low key US economic data released Friday afternoon:
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.7 (10.1 Exp)
    • Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% (78.5% Exp)
    • Industrial Production m/m 0.1% (0.4% Exp)
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.8 (95.5 Exp)
  • A French Presidential source reportedly said the EU would agree to a short technical extension but only if Theresa May passes her Brexit deal next week.
  • DUP Deputy Leader Dodds said they had held long and constructive talks with UK Cabinet Ministers Friday and that the DUP wants a deal. However he added any agreement would depend on the guarantees the Government is able to provide.
  • Mrs May’s deal was however dealt another blow Friday afternoon as a panel of pro-Brexit lawyers rejected additional legal advice from Geoffrey Cox. Cox, the government’s legal adviser, had said the UK could use the Vienna convention in order to pull out of the contentious Irish backstop unilaterally. The panel of lawyers however rubbished his advice saying it was ‘badly misconceived’.
Overnight

  • The Government has been scrambling to win over Tory Brexiteers to support Theresa May’s Brexit deal at the third time of asking over the weekend. With the PM due to meet European Leaders in just three days time, Mrs May wants to be able to show the EU 27 that she has garnered enough support for her deal to justify a short extension to Article 50.
  • Speaking on the Andrew Marr show yesterday, Chancellor Philip Hammond warned his Brexiteer colleagues that failing to support Mrs May’s deal could trigger a long delay to the UK’s departure of the European Union.
  • Mrs May’s Deal is highly unlikely to come back to the commons again this week unless the PM gets the support of the DUP and Tory Brexiteers.
  • According to sources a meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, aimed at ending their current trade war, could now be put back to June.
  • Japan Trade Balance 0.12Tn (0.09Tn Exp)
  • Japan Revised Industrial Production m/m -3.4% (-3.7% Exp)
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday on the data front.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1664 -0.62
GBP/USD 1.3240 -0.34
EUR/USD 1.1346 +0.20
AUD/USD 0.7109 +0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Trade Balance 17.2Bn 15.6Bn
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12.30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -18.96Bn
14.00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 63 62
20.00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 109.1