Newsletter – 18th June 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Moves in FX space were fairly muted Friday with very little data of any significance set for release.
  • Eurozone Inflation data headlined in the morning, with the CPI y/y print inline with expectations at 1.9%. That is the first time in a year that Inflation has edged close to the ECB’s 2% target.
  • Released at the same time the Eurozone’s Trade Balance showed it’s lowest surplus in 6 months at 18.1Bn. A surplus of 20.2Bn had been expected, but higher imports weighed on the actual figure.
  • Into the afternoon and there were a number of releases out of North America, but nothing particularly high impact:
    • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.3% (0.6% Exp)
    • US Empire State Manufacturing Index 25.0 (19.1 Exp)
    • US Capacity Utilization Rate 77.9% (78.1% Exp)
    • US Industrial Production m/m -0.1% (0.2% Exp)
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.3 (98.5 Exp)
  • Speaking Friday evening US Fed Member Robert Kaplan said that trade with its neighbours Mexico and Canada represents opportunity and not a threat, with trade deals boosting jobs in the United States.
Over The Weekend

  • According to the British Chambers of Commerce the UK economy is on track to grow at its slowest pace since 2009, with Brexit uncertainties, higher oil prices and fears of a trade war the main factors weighing on performance. The BBC has now cut its 2018 growth forecast to 1.3%, down from 1.4%.
  • China-US trade tensions heightened even further over the weekend, with China repsonding to President Trumps latest threat by imposing extra custom duties of its own. President Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on $50bn of Chinese goods containing industrially-significant technologies amid accusations of China stealing intellectual property from US Tech companies.
  • UK Rightmove HPI m/m 0.4% (0.8% Prior)
  • Japan Trade Balance -0.30Tn (0.14Tn Exp)
Today
  • Could be a quiet day ahead with very little data set for release.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1420 -0.10
GBP/USD 1.3235 -0.30
EUR/USD 1.1588 -0.15
AUD/USD 0.7450 +0.14

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.21Bn 4.53Bn
11.00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
15.30 AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2%
18.00 USD US Fed Member Bostic Speaks
18.30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
21.00 USD US Fed Member Williams Speaks