Newsletter – 18th July 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling lost ground on both the euro and the US dollar yesterday with GBP/EUR briefly trading a 4-month low at 1.1223.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.13 and fell by 0.47% to close at 1.1246.
    • GBP/USD fell by 0.9% after opening at 1.3234 and closing at 1.3114.
  • Sterling’s losses were as a result of the government only narrowly avoiding defeats on key Brexit legislation in recent days which further undermined confidence in the government’s ability to pass the required legislation to deliver a smooth Brexit. (PoundSterlingLive)
  • The Pound’s losses came despite a solid jobs report which came in as expected supported market expectations for an interest rate hike next month.
    • Average earnings 3m/y came in at 2.5% as expected.
    • Claimant count change was higher than expected at 7.8K vs 2.3K.
    • Unemployment rate came in at 4.2% as expected.
  • Elsewhere. Canadian manufacturing sales m/m came in at 1.4%, US capacity utilisation rate came in at 78.0%, slightly short of expectations of 78.4%. US industrial production m/m came in better than expected at 0.6% vs 0.5%.
  • US President Donald Trump and reversed his remark on Russian election meddling and now says that he accepts US intelligence conclusions.
  • New Zealand GDT Price Index came in at -1.7%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.7803, 1.9373 and 147.91.
  • We have another busy morning for the UK with inflation data due at 9.30am.
  • PM May will also address Conservative MPs later amid bitter divisions in their ranks over her Brexit policy (BBC).
  • At 10am we will see final CPI from the Eurozone before US building permits and housing starts from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1264 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.3086 -0.21
EUR/USD 1.1618 -0.36
AUD/USD 0.7348 -0.54


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP CPI y/y 2.6% 2.4%
09:30 GBP RPI Input m/m 0.3% 2.8%
09:30 GBP RPI y/y 3.5% 3.3%
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
13:30 USD Building Permits 1.33M 1.30M
13:30 USD Housing Starts 1.32M 1.35M