Newsletter – 18th January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling rallied yesterday despite no fresh Brexit developments.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1303 and traded a high of 1.1409 before closing at 1.1400 – an increase of 0.86% on the day.
    • GBP/USD opened at 1.2877 and traded a high of 1.3001 before closing at 1.2985 which represents an increase of 0.83% on Thursday.
    • Some analysts are putting the move down to the the perception that a ‘no deal’ Brexit is less likely with PM Theresa May actively pursuing discussions with senior Parliamentarians,
  • The prime minister wrote to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn inviting him to take part in discussions to establish a consensus on the type of deal that would get approval in the commons. Corbyn has so far refused to take part until a ‘no deal’ Brexit is taken off the table by the prime minister.
  • EU Brexit minister Barnier said that the deal struck with the UK is the best deal possible.
  • In the US, the Philly Fed manufacturing index came in stronger than expected at 17.0 vs 9.7.
  • The Fed’s Quarles said that US economic data is very strong while inflation is well contained.
Overnight
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.8019 (-0.19%), 1.9154 (-0.24%) and 141.80 (-0.02%), respectively.
Today
  • UK retail sales came in slighty weaker than expected this morning at -0.9% vs -0.8%.
  • At 1.30pm we have CPI m/m from Canada along with common CPI y/y, median CPI y/y and trimmed CPI y/y.
  • PM May will continue to meet MPs today to discuss a way to deliver Brexit.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1345 -0.48
GBP/USD 1.2942 -0.33
EUR/USD 1.1405 +0.14
AUD/USD 0.7185 -0.09

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD CPI m/m -0.4% -0.4%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%