Newsletter – 18th August 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Once again yesterday morning kicked off with key UK data, this time in the form of Retail Sales for July. Sterling did initially rally as the headline figure of 0.3% bettered the expected 0.2% rise, however that move proved short lived; almost a carbon copy of the previous day.
  • The Pound fell back to pre-data levels pretty quickly as the Retail Sales figure was shown to have been boosted by a huge surge in demand for food, however the underlying trend showed a slowdown in spending at stores. The previous month’s Retail Sales figure was also revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%.
  • The UK Government have said they remain confident enough progress will be made in Brexit talks by October, in order to then move on to the next phase.
  • Eurozone CPI Inflation y/y came in as expected for the year up to July at 1.3%.
  • The Euro was wieghed down slighlty following the release of the ECB’S monetary policy minutes. The minutes revealed that members were concerned of an overshoot in the repricing of financial markets, most notably an overly strong Euro.
  • Solid data out of the US:
    • Unemployment Claims 232K (240K Exp)
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 18.9 (18.3 Exp)
    • Capacity Utilization Rate 76.7% as expected
  • Speaking Friday evening US Fed Member Kaplan stated that he would be patient as far as another rate hike was concerned, and that he would like to see further progress on inflation.
Overnight

  • US Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking on Financial stability at the Jackson Hole Symposium next Friday.
  • The White House has denied reports that suggest Gary Cohn had resigned as the Director of the National Economic Council.
  • German PPI m/m 0.2% (0.0% Exp)
Today
  • Data is very thin on the ground today so it could be a relatively quiet end to the week.
  • Canadian CPI m/m is the only high impact data set for release at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0985 +0.09
GBP/USD 1.2887 +0.16
EUR/USD 1.1729 +0.05
AUD/USD 0.7919 +0.46

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Current Account 27.3Bn 30.1Bn
13.30 CAD CPI m/m 0.0% -0.1%
15.00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.0 93.4
15.15 USD Fed Member Kaplan Speaks