Newsletter – 17th June 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Friday was all about the US Dollar with the greenback making solid gains across the board in FX space as key economic data appeared to temporarily ease concerns of a slowing economy.
  • GBP/USD had been trading around the Mid 1.2600’s in the morning before closing the day down by more than half a cent and just below the 1.2600 handle.
  • The Euro didn’t fare any better against the Dollar either having dropped from 1.1280 in the morning to close the day just a whisker above 1.1200.
  • US Retail Sales headlined what was a fairly sparse economic calendar on Friday. Fears of a slowdown in the US economy were allayed somewhat with m/m sales growing +0.5% in May, representing the third consecutive month of growth in Retail Sales having seen April’s original decline revised to show a small gain.
  • Despite the pick up in Sales in May there was a slight drop in Consumer confidence this month with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey dropping to 97.9 from 100.00 in May.
  • Capacity Utlization Rate 78.1% (78.0% Exp)
  • Industrial Production m/m +0.4% (+0.2% Exp)
  • Reports Friday afternoon suggest that the EU is heading towards a full-blown fight with the Italian Government over the management of Italy’s huge public debt. Meetings on Friday between the Italian Finance Minister and EU partners appeared to end with no resolution.
Over The Weekend

  • UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m +0.3% (+0.9% previous)
  • Tory MP’s vying to become the next Prime Minister took part in a live debate on Channel 4 last night, with the notable absentee being the current front runner Boris Johnson. The main theme of the debate unsurprisingly was around Brexit and whether another deal could be renegotiated and the prospect of leaving with no-deal.
  • A growing number of economists believe the US Federal Reserve will likely drop the word ‘patient’ from this weeks monetary policy statement, clearing the way for a rate cut in July. At present the Federal fund futures point to an 80% chance of a rate cut in July, with just a 20% chance at this week’s June meeting.
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday as far as economic data is concerned.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1215 +0.10
GBP/USD 1.2582 -0.05
EUR/USD 1.1217 +0.10
AUD/USD 0.6874 +0.08

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -1.49Bn
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 12.1 17.8
15.00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 67 66
18.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks