Newsletter – 17th January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Theresa May’s government survived a vote of no-confidence yesterday evening by 19 votes after MPs voted 325 in favour of and 306 against keeping the current government in power.
  • Of the votes cast in favour, 10 came from DUP members which means that had they switched allegiance, the government would have lost by one vote.
  • Following the result of the vote, PM May told the commons that now is the time to ‘put self interest aside’ and invited senior parliamentarians and party leaders to discuss what needs to be done to reach a consensus on any future deal.
  • In a speech outside 10 Downing St, the prime minister said that conversations with other leaders had already begun and that she was disappointed that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had refused to take part.
  • Earlier in the evening Corbyn had said that in order for discussions to take place, the prime minister would have to publicly rule out the option of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.
  • EU leaders reiterated their stance of waiting for the UK signal the way forward and remain confident a deal can be struck that satisfies the UK parliament should the prime minister make substantial changes to her ‘red lines’. (Bloomberg)
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1265 and rallied by 0.34% on the day to close at 1.1303. 
  • GBP/USD increased by 0.14% on Wednesday by opening at 1.2859 and closing at 1.2877.
  • EUR/USD came off by -0.19% to close at 1.1391 after it opened at 1.1413.
  • UK CPI y/y came in as expected at 2.1%, RPI input m/m came in strong at -1.0% vs -1.5% expected but RPI y/y came in weaker at 2.7% vs 2.9% expected.
  • Republican US senator Chuck Grassley said that trade representative Robert Lighthizer did not make any progress on structural issues during US talks with China last week as plans emerged for higher-level discussion at the end of January.

Overnight

  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading 1.7971 (+0.04%), 1.9096 (+0.47%) and 140.02 (-0.32%), respectively.

Today

  • Discussions between the government, party leaders, senior MPs and parliamentarians are set to continue today in an attempt to find a consensus on a Brexit deal that will get through parliament.
  • At 1.30pm, we expect US Philly fed manufacturing index data to come in at 9.7.
  • Through the course of the day we also expect the Bank of England credit conditions survey and a speech from FOMC member Quarles.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1292 -0.10
GBP/USD 1.2870 -0.04
EUR/USD 1.1397 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7163 -0.04

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
13:30 USD Phill Fed Manufacturing Index 9.7 9.4
15:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks