Newsletter – 17th January 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • The US dollar found some support yesterday following the weakness it has shown this week amid the US government shutdown risk.
  • GBP/USD and EUR/USD both closed roughly where they opened at 1.3791 and 1.2259, respectively.
  • The weak dollar means that GBP/USD closed yesterday up over 2.1%% since Monday and EUR/USD closed up 2.6% over the same period.
  • UK inflation fell for the first time since June after coming in at 3%. This drop from 3.1% was not unexpected and the 0.1% decrease has been put down to the impact of air fares. The ONS said that despite air fares rising, the impact it had was smaller than at the same point in 2016.
  • UK RPI input m/m came in weaker than expected at 0.1% vs 0.5% and RPI y/y came in better than expected at 4.1% vs 3.9%.
  • GBP/EUR continued to trade within the range established on Friday. The market opened at 1.1242, traded a high of 1.1283, a low of 1.1231 before closing at at 1.1249.
  • In the US, empire state manufacturing index came in at 17.7 vs 18.5 expected.
  • There was a lack of economic data released in the Asian session.
  • Of the data that we did see, home loans m/m from Australia came in at 2.1% vs -0.1% expected and ANZ commodity prices m/m from New Zealand came at -2.2%.
  • The USD is continuing to find support this morning with GBP/USD and EUR/USD showing losses on the day of 0.08% and 0.29%, respectively so far.
  • At 2.15pm we expect to see the capacity utilisation rate and industrial production m/m from the US before all eyes turn to Canada.
  • The overnight rate is expected to increase to 1.25% and this announcement will be accompanied by the BOC rate statement and monetary policy report and followed by a press conference at 4.15pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1273 +0.21
GBP/USD 1.3780 -0.08
EUR/USD 1.2224 -0.29
AUD/USD 0.7967 +0.12


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.5%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilisation Rate 77.3% 77.1%
14:15 USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.2%
15:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
15:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD Overnight Rate 1.25% 1.00%
16:15 CAD BOC Press Conference