Newsletter – 17th August 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • UK retail sales m/m beat expectations on Thursday coming in at 0.7% vs 0.2%. Retail sales rose by 3.5% in the year to July with online sales remaining strong.
  • The reaction from the pound was muted as the wider economic concerns dominate market sentiment.
  • GBP/EUR came off lows of 1.1162 of close at 1.1178 however it still registered a loss of just under a tenth of a percent on the day after opening at 1.1186.
  • Sterling did gain slightly on the US dollar closing at 1.2712 after opening at 1.2694 – the market traded a high of 1.2753 but couldn’t sustain its momentum from the morning session
  • US President Donald Trump said the US will pay nothing to Turkey for the release of the detained American Pastor Andrew Brunson who has been the cause of tensions between the countries. The Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey does not wish to have a problem with the United States and that their differences can be overcome but not with the current US approach. The Turkish Lira plunged to a record low against the US dollar this week.
  • China Vice Commerce Min Wang Shouwen and his delegation will visit the US for trade talks in late August offering hope that they can resolve an escalating tariff war.
  • EUR/USD traded off of 13 month lows to close up over a quarter of a percent on the Thursday. The market opened at 1.1345 and closed at 1.1376.
  • Canadian manufacturing sales m/m came in as expected at 1.1%.
  • Building permits from the US also came in as expected at 1.31M however housing starts and the Philly fed manufacturing index both missed expectations coming in at 1.17m vs 1.27m and 11.9 vs 21.9, respectively.
  • New Zealand PPI input q/q came in better than expected at 1.0% vs 0.2%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.7472, 1.9263 and 140.88.
  • Today we expected to see final CPI y/y from the Eurozone at 10am.
  • Following that we have a raft of data from Canada in the form of CPI m/m, common CPI y/y, foreign securities purchases, median CPI y/y and trimmed CPI y/y at 1.30pm.
  • At 3pm we will see the release of the latest preliminary UoM consumer sentiment figure from the US.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1154 -0.26
GBP/USD 1.2727 +0.12
EUR/USD 1.1409 +0.29
AUD/USD 0.7281 +0.30


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
13:30 CAD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9%
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 4.91B 2.18B
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.0%
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.1 97.9