Newsletter – 16th October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Sterling gained ground on the euro on Friday with the market rallying by 0.53% before coming off towards the end of the day to close at 1.1234.
  • GBP/USD also closed higher on the day – closing at 1.3278 after opening at 1.3259. Cable traded as high 1.3337 on the day.
  • US Secretary of State Tillerson said President Trump will refuse to certify to Congress that the nuclear deal with Iran is in the US national interest. Trump will not instruct Congress to impose new sanctions and instead will implement a broad new strategy to contain Iran.
  • Chicago Fed President Evans said that the Federal Reserve’s priority must be to get inflation back to its 2% target.
  • Departing Fed Vice Chair Fischer said there is a good chance of a rate hike in December. 
  • In terms of economic data releases from Friday, we saw CPI m/m from the US come in softer than expected at 0.5% vs 0.6% and core CPI m/m came in at 0.1% vs 0.2% whereas core retail sales m/m was stronger than anticipated at 1.0% vs 0.9% but retail sales m/m missed expectations coming in at 1.6% vs 1.7%.

Overnight

  • UK Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said that Parliament can stop the UK leaving the EU without negotiating a deal.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.6872, 1.8508 and 148.62.
  • Chinese CPI y/y came in as expected at 1.6% and PPI y/y came in slightly better than expected at 6.9% vs 6.3%.

Today

  • The economic data is few and far between today with only Empire State manufacturing index at 1.30pm and BOC business outlook survey at 3.30pm.
  • PM Theresa May today heads to Brussels for dinner with EU leaders in a bid to end a stalemate over Brexit.
  • PM May and David Davis will meet with Michel Barnier and Jean-Claude Juncker ahead of this weeks summit of EU leaders.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1277 +0.38
GBP/USD 1.3298 +0.15
EUR/USD 1.1791 -0.23
AUD/USD 0.7875 -0.14

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 20.05B 23.95B
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 24.4
15:30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey