Newsletter – 16th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Solid jobs data out of the UK kicked off yesterday’s trading:
    • Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.2% (2.1% Exp)
    • Claimant Count Change 1.1K (2.0K Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 4.3% as expected
  • Sterling did briefly rally in FX space, however the Pound remains under pressure due to political and Brexit related issues.
  • According to Michael Bloomberg, the US Billionaire and former Mayor of NY, London will remain the financial capital of Europe post-brexit and for the forseeable future, although he also said the City would see a slowing of economic growth.
  • US Federal Reserve Member Evans said he will go into December’s meeting with an open-mind, but said it was becoming more and more difficult to feel comfortable that the drop in US inflation is transitory.
  • In fact Inflation was one of yesterday afternoon’s key US figures, with CPI during October rising just +0.1% as expected. Retail Sales were up a modest +0.2% against expectations of being flat on the month.
  • US Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.4 (25.5 Exp).
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon Bank of England Dep Gov Broadbent said the BOE’s move to increase rates was justified by soaring inflation and a dwindling in spare capacity (Low Unemployment). He added that the BOE needs to stick with its assumption that the current low level of unemployment will lead to growing wages next year.
Overnight

  • The Sun is reporting that UK PM Theresa May is prepared to offer the EU £20Billion in order to kick start Brexit trade talks in December, this money would be in addition to the £18Billion she has already offered to secure a transitional deal.
  • US Fed Member Rosengren stated Inflation misses are due to temporary factors, and that gradual rate hikes should continue. He further added that market expectations of a hike in December are consistent with his view.
  • Australia Employment Change 3.7K (17.8K Exp)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate 5.4% (5.5% Exp)
  • Australia MI Inflation Expectations 3.7% (4.3% Previous)
Today
  • UK Retail Sales and Eurozone Inflation are the key numbers this morning.
  • This afternoon is dominated by data releases out of North America.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1164 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.3164 -0.03
EUR/USD 1.1791 +0.01
AUD/USD 0.7597 +0.12

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.8%
10.00 EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
13.30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.4% 1.6%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 235K 239K
13.30 USD Import Prices m/m 0.4% 0.7%
13.30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 24.5 27.9
TBC GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
14.15 USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.3%
14.15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 76.3% 76.0%
TBC USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks