Newsletter – 16th July 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • There was no data to digest during Friday morning’s trading.
  • Having severely undermined Theresa May by suggesting the Chequers agreement for the UK’s future relationship with the EU would likely lead to no future trade deal with the United States, US President Donald Trump quickly took a step back in an attempt to smooth things over on Friday. Speaking alongside PM May at Chequers the President stated ‘I don’t know what they’re going to do but whatever you do is OK by me’, further adding ‘Just make sure we can trade together, that’s all the matters to me’.
  • According to the Italian Deputy PM Luigi Di Maio Italy will not ratify the European Union’s free trade agreement with Canada (CETA) which could potentially scupper what would be one of the EU’s biggest FTA’s in years. The ruling 5-star/league government pledged to take a hard line stance to defend Italian specialty foods, something they feel would be threatened by CETA.
  • US data dissapointed Friday afternoon, there was a sharp fall of -0.4% in import prices in June that was against an expected rise of +0.1%. The revised UoM Consumer Sentiment print also fell shy of expectations at 97.1 (98.1 was expected).
  • According to their biannual report the US Federal Reserve said the US economy has seen solid growth over the first half of 2018 and that they expect to continuing raising interest rates gradually.
Overnight

  • US President Trump declared that the European Union are ‘foes’ of the United States in an interview on Sunday. The President was referring to the EU’s economic policies and what he perceives they do to the US when it comes to trade when referring to the bloc as foes.
  • In an interview with Andrew Marr, UK PM Theresa May revealed that one of Donald Trump’s suggestions to her regarding Brexit was to sue the European Union, not to go into negotiations but to sue them.
  • China GDP q/y 6.7% as expected
  • China Industrial Production y/y 6.0% (6.5% Exp)
  • China Retail Sales y/y 9.0% (8.8% Exp)
Today
  • Just the Eurozone Trade Balance to look out for in this morning’s session.
  • This afternoon US data will be in focus, with retail Sales they key print at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1318 -0.03
GBP/USD 1.3234 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.1691 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7426 +0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.25Bn 2.94Bn
10.00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance 17.6Bn 18.1Bn
13.30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 7.03Bn 9.13Bn
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.8%
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 25.0
15.00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%