Newsletter – 16th January 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was no data of any note to digest during yesterday’s trading session.
  • With the US observing Martin Luther King Day, the US Dollar remained on the back-foot yesterday, with the Dollar Index down around 0.50% on the day.
  • GBP/USD hit another fresh post-referendum high of 1.3819 during the morning session, closing the day around 1.3805 (+0.57%).
  • Similarly EUR/USD pushed higher against the Dollar, hitting a fresh 3-year highs of 1.2296, before retreating a fraction to close down at 1.2265 (+0.51%). The Euro continues to find strength on hopes of Germany forming a coalition Government, and was bolstered by comments by the ECB’s Hansson (See below).
  • According to ECB Member Hansson, the ECB’s Quantitative Easing program could end in one step without any problems, and that could be in September provided the Eurozone economy and inflation evolve as expected.
  • The Spanish economy will grow by +2.3% during 2018, according to Spanish economy minister Rajoy.
Overnight

  • Speaking yesterday evening, Bank of England member Tenreyro said they have ‘ample time’ before they need to consider their next rate hike. She also struck an optimistic note on UK productivity, suggesting it could pick up faster than expected, particularly where Manufacturing is concerned as faster global growth increases demand.
  • New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence -12 (5 Previously)
  • Japan PPI y/y 3.1% (3.3% Exp)
  • German Final CPI m/m 0.6% as expected
Today
  • UK CPI y/y is today’s key print, with a reading of 3.0% expected at 9.30am.
  • We should see higher volumes with American traders back in the office.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1250 +0.04
GBP/USD 1.3788 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.2252 -0.09
AUD/USD 0.7966 +0.04

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 3.0% 3.1%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 0.5% 1.8%
10.00 EUR Italian Trade Balance 5.22Bn 4.95Bn
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.5 18.0
14.30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.2%
TBC NZD GDT Price Index 2.2%
17.00 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks