Newsletter – 16th April 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • There was very little key data released Friday.
  • The Eurozone’s Trade Balance was slightly better than expected with a positive balance of 21.0Bn; 20.2Bn had been forecast.
  • According to sources a wide-ranging free trade agreement between Japan and the European Union will be ready to be signed off in Brussels in July.
  • Speaking on Friday ECB Member Smets said that weak inflation in the Eurozone remained a lingering concern and that the slack within the economy could be larger than previously thought. Smets added that prudence, patience and persistence on the ECB’s part were justified.
  • There were just a couple of prints out of the US Friday afternoon:
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.8 (100.6 Exp)
    • JOLTS Job Openings 6.05M (6.11M Exp)
  • US Fed Member Rosengren remains upbeat on the US Economy according to his assessment Friday afternoon. Mr Rosengren said that he believed inflation was likely to increase more than the current Fed forecasts, and that more tightening of current policy would therefore be required and so a further three rates hikes may be needed in 2018.
  • According to a Mexican Trade Representative the US has still yet to move on 5-6 toxic NAFTA demands, and that any deal will depend on the political will of the US administration.
Over The Weekend

  • UK PM Theresa May is likely to face a backlash and harsh criticism from MP’s in the commons later today as parliament resumes following a recess. Many opposition MP’s and indeed some of her own Tory MP’s have been angered by the PM’s decision to join France and the US in conducting airstrikes against Syria over the weekend.
  • UK Rightmove HPI m/m 0.4% (1.5% Previously)
  • New Zealand FPI (Food) m/m 1.0% (-0.5% Previously)
  • Swiss PPI m/m -0.2% (0.4% Exp)
  • Barclays have downgraded their estimate for Euro Area growth to 2.3% from 2.5%, and also expect inflation to remain subuded at 1.2% throughout 2018, rising to just 1.4% in 2019.
  • Commerzbank have pushed their expectations of a first ECB rate hike to September 2019 from July 2019.
  • No more data set for release this morning.
  • We look to the US for data this afternoon with Retail Sales headlining at 1.30pm.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1544 +0.03
GBP/USD 1.4248 +0.02
EUR/USD 1.2341 +0.02
AUD/USD 0.7771 +0.06


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.1%
13.30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.8 22.5
14.30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.0%
15.00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.6% 0.6%
18.15 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks