Newsletter – 15th October 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling lost ground on the euro and US dollar on Friday.
    • GBP/EUR fell by 0.35% on the day after opening at 1.1410, trading a high of 1.1433 and closing at the low of 1.1370.
    • GBP/USD followed a similar pattern to GBP/EUR with it trading up in the morning before falling and closing on the low of the day. The open, high and close were 1.3230, 1.3257 and 1.3146, respectively.
  • 10 Downing Street said on Friday that Theresa May would ‘never agree’ to a permanent customs union with the EU following concerns from ministers that this could be part of a compromise to achieve a Brexit deal.
  • It emerged on Friday that the M26 in Kent will be closed overnight while work is done to see if it can it can be used a car park for lorries in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Subsequently it was closed last night between 10pm and 5.30am and will be closed again between the 19th November and 21st December.
  • It was very quiet day in terms of economic data but we did see Eurozone industrial production m/m beat expectations at 1.0% vs 0.4%.
  • US import prices m/m came in better than expected at 0.5% vs 0.3%.
  • US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment came in at 99.0 vs 100.4 expected.
Over The Weekend
  • Government sources have warned that Brexit negotiations have hit a ‘real problem’ over the issue of the Irish border.
  • There were hopes that there would be a breakthrough with Brexit secretary Dominic Raab making an unscheduled trip to Brussels on Sunday.
  • He met EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier but talks faltered over the need of a backstop to avoid a Irish hard border.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.8405, 2.0101 and 146.58, respectively.
  • Sterling gapped lower on the open against the US dollar with the market opening at 1.3083 following a close of 1.3146 on Friday. 
  • US core retail sales m/m and retails sales are due to be announced at 1.30pm.
  • Following that we will see the BOC business outlook survey at 3.30pm and from New Zealand CPI q/q at 10.45pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1353 -0.15
GBP/USD 1.3138 -0.06
EUR/USD 1.1572 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.7136 +036


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.3%
13:30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.1%
15:30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
Tent USD Treasury Currency Report
22:45 NZD CPI q/q 0.7% 0.4%