Newsletter – 15th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • After a long and difficult negotiations with the EU, Theresa May finally had a draft text of the Brexit withdrawal agreement to present to ministers yesterday.
  • The draft deal includes Northern Ireland staying in the EU customs union and being part of a new UK-EU joint customs arrangement which would mean the UK would have to follow EU rules in areas such as the environment, social protection and how the government intervenes in the economy.
  • Following a meeting with her cabinet it was reported that May’s deal had their backing with the caveat that many voiced their concerns but had little alternative other than to back the deal.
  • In the PM’s speech she advised that the options available were ‘her deal, no deal or no Brexit’
  • GBP/EUR was very volatile over the course of the day with GBP/EUR opening at 1.1484, trading a high of 1.1537, a low of 1.1420 and closing at 1.1487.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.2968, traded a high of 1.3071, a low of 1.2882 and closed at 1.2984.
  • US inflation data came in as expected with CPI m/m at 0.3% and core CPI m/m at 0.2%.
Overnight
  • Employment change in Australia came in better than expected at 32.8K vs 19.9K and unemployment rate came in at 5.0% vs 5.1% expected.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.7611, 1.8782 and 144.85, respectively.
Today
  • Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has resigned this morning stating that he ‘cannot with good conscience support’ the UK’s draft Brexit agreement with the EU.
  • Work and pensions secretary Esther McVey has also resigned this morning publishing her letter to PM May which condemns the draft agreement. In the document she outlines her reasons which are that the Prime Minister is not delivering the Brexit she promised, the UK is giving £40bn to the EU with nothing in return and that the agreement threatens the integrity of the United Kingdon.
  • Junior Northern Ireland minister Shaliesh Vara has also resigned along with PPS to education ministers Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
  • Sterling has come off amid the apparent chaos and is down 1.38% against the euro and 1.48% against the US dollar this morning.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1328 -1.38
GBP/USD 1.2792 -1.48
EUR/USD 1.1292 -0.13
AUD/USD 0.7259 +0.39

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
14:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
14:30 USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.1%
14:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.1 22.2